Influenza and Pandemic by Steven Galeotti, ARM

Posted Thu, 07/02/2009 - 11:18 by Nathan Crutchfield

Although it’s summertime and the fall flu season seems a long way off, now is the time to review your flu response guidelines and programs in the event of a major flu outbreak. While the potential for a flu pandemic has faded from the headlines, it is a relevant subject. As of July 1, 2009, The US has reported over 27,000 cases and 127 deaths to the World health Organization (http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_07_01a/en/index.html; Update 56).

Our guest blogger today is Steven Galeotti, ARM, Principal of SRM Consulting, sgaleotti@srmconsulting.net. Steve has over 32 years experience in risk management and risk control consulting with significant expertise in risk assessment and Enterprise Risk Management. He has developed a methodology for assessing business risk in organizations. He has made presentations to the National Association of College and University Business Officers, the Risk and Insurance Management Society and other national organizations.

A pandemic, simply stated, is a global outbreak of a disease. In the case of influenza (flu) a pandemic can be caused by the swine (H1N1) or the avian (H5N1) virus. Since 1900 there have been three flu pandemics - 1918-1919, 1957-1958 and 1968-1969 with worldwide deaths estimated at 50 million, 2 million and 700,000, respectively.

According to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) there are four characteristics and challenges of a pandemic:

1. Rapid worldwide spread

2. Healthcare systems overloaded

3. Medical supplies inadequate

4. Economic and social disruption

It is critical that everyone, from businesses to schools to families, have an emergency plan for when, not if, a pandemic strikes.

The CDC, as well as most state and local health departments have pandemic plan outlines, checklists, fact sheets and other material that can assist you in developing a plan. For example, the CDC business checklist contains six sections designed to help a business understand what needs to be included in their pandemic plan:

Plan for the impact of a pandemic on you business
Plan for the impact of a pandemic on your employees and customers
Establish policies to be implemented during a pandemic
Allocate resources to protect your employees and customers during a pandemic
Communicate to and educate your employees
Coordinate with external organizations and help your community

The World Health Organization (WHO) has established a “phase of pandemic alert” scale to assist national pandemic preparedness efforts. A summary of the scale is shown below:

Phase 1: No viruses circulating among animals have been reported to cause human infection

Phase 2: An animal infection is known to have caused infection in humans

Phase 3: An animal or human-animal flu virus has caused sporadic cases or small clusters of disease in people

Phase 4: Verified human-to-human transmission of an animal or human-animal flu virus able to cause “community-level” outbreaks

Phase 5: Human-to-human spread of the virus in at least two countries in one WHO region

Phase 6: Considered the “pandemic phase” where community level outbreaks in at least one other country in a different WHO region in addition to the criteria defined in Phase 5

Previous pandemics have seen waves of flu activity spread over a period of months, so there is every reason to expect to see a similar wave pattern with the next pandemic. This wave-like activity can lull people into a false sense of security that the worst has passed after the first wave of high activity drops. It is important that any pandemic plan take into account this wave-like nature of the disease to ensure that your family or organization doesn’t get caught unprepared for the second or third wave.

Also see: http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/

http://www.pandemicflu.gov/

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/en/

Many thanks, Steven for the insight and comments. Since we have a tenancy to quickly table or lose interest in issues or problems with limited or no immediate impact (No Loss = No Risk), establishing an action plan strategy that can be rapidly deployed is essential. People will say they have no time to focus on items where the consequences are in the “distant” future. It is essential that as EHS professionals we keep our focus on risk and not just immediate loses and have plans up to date, practiced and ready for quick deployment.

Nathan Crutchfield

Crutchfield Consulting, LLC